Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 2.610961 3.048877 3.534460 4.112396 4.781114 5.530171 6.432542
2025-12-21 1.902458 2.479433 3.188597 4.122423 5.317871 6.795065 8.757290
2025-12-28 1.587333 2.262772 3.165423 4.455244 6.246011 8.639019 12.074005
2026-01-04 1.299640 1.999859 3.004582 4.543000 6.829792 10.092437 15.088118
2026-01-11 1.092683 1.797683 2.873952 4.623871 7.383114 11.547942 18.287965
2026-01-18 0.923665 1.613988 2.728197 4.639826 7.816813 12.858124 21.426249
2026-01-25 0.782708 1.445619 2.571657 4.600896 8.138845 14.013671 24.451179
2026-02-01 0.635314 1.236953 2.309692 4.334947 8.029196 14.431044 26.287856
2026-02-08 0.535116 1.094368 2.137509 4.193692 8.104308 15.152838 28.715910
2026-02-15 0.466650 0.999278 2.035462 4.161644 8.365255 16.222703 31.885567
2026-02-22 0.430591 0.962108 2.037045 4.325777 9.014597 18.075738 36.729635
2026-03-01 0.381249 0.888268 1.953506 4.305245 9.293611 19.251753 40.405530
2026-03-08 0.335103 0.815349 1.864895 4.270196 9.557963 20.471381 44.411263
2026-03-15 0.297803 0.756106 1.797123 4.271618 9.904525 21.913071 49.089520
2026-03-22 0.288853 0.762332 1.876168 4.612775 11.041681 25.153190 57.997214
2026-03-29 0.264046 0.724878 1.848244 4.702395 11.624494 27.272897 64.737880
2026-04-05 0.241781 0.689651 1.819739 4.785614 12.203214 29.454205 71.893144
2026-04-12 0.218664 0.647697 1.767630 4.801976 12.622846 31.323160 78.563408
2026-04-19 0.195731 0.601777 1.697756 4.761687 12.895673 32.880015 84.689412
2026-04-26 0.165902 0.530153 1.547926 4.486742 12.529720 32.849745 86.949280
2026-05-03 0.145132 0.481166 1.451506 4.340705 12.479163 33.590002 91.223433
2026-05-10 0.130912 0.449469 1.398498 4.307570 12.728248 35.121186 97.716428
2026-05-17 0.124682 0.442035 1.414884 4.477255 13.564679 38.284224 108.883840